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Superomegaop

How to actually calculate how much SP crit is worth?

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i know crit is worth more depending on how much sp you have but i don't know what the exact formula is.

its something like (your avg shadowbolt damage x 1%) / .86(spell coefficient) or (your avg shadowbolt damage / 83(how many shadowbolts you land out of 100)) x 1% /.86 

 

idk i looked up 3 posts about it and each 1 gave a different formula. idk why some of them divide by the spell coefficient.

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Use the spreadsheet in the Definitive Warlock Guide thread. Fill in you gear, character, buffs and talents. Use the buffs you typically have in a raid situation.

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Just use this

X = spell power equal to 1% crit

SP = your spellpower

crit = your crit chance

coeff = spell power coefficient of the spell you are using

baseDmg = base damage of the spell you are using

X = [(1 + crit + 0.01)/(1 + crit) * (SP*coeff + baseDmg) – baseDmg]/coeff - SP

This is only for personal dps and does not include added raid damage from applying the improved shadowbolt debuff.  For raid damage crit becomes more valuable than this.

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Short answer: 1 crit is valued at 7-9 SP and 1 hit is valued at 10-12 SP. it depends on your gear, generally crit becomes more valuable as you get more SP and hit.

Long answer:

Average dps can be calculated with a formula using this data:
SP: your spelldamage
SP_coefficient: your spelldamage coefficient (0.8571 for shadowbolts)
Int: your intellect which is used to calculate crit
Crit modifier: your base crit of 1.8333 + your crit from int (int/60) + crit from talents (normally 5% from Devastation) + crit from gear.
Hit: base miss chance (17% for bosses) - your +hit from gear. This gives us the expression 0,83 + Hit.
Resistance modifier: the average dps you lose from resistances. Base resistance for most bosses is 145. CoS takes 75 from that leaving you with 70 resistance, each 10 resistance lowers your average dps by 2.5%, thus 10 spell pen increases it by 2.5% until you have 70 spell pen.
This formula relies on you having the talent Ruin which increases your crit damage bonus by 100% so a crit now does double damage, this simplifies the formula significantly and is an almost necessary talent. 

First work out what your average shadowbolt will hit for:
SB_average (rank 9) = 481,5+ SP*SP_coefficient

example 1: with 100SP your average shadowbolt will hit for: 481,5 +100*0.8571 = 567,2

Now you calculate your average dps.

SP_DPS = SB_average/cast time. Untalented the cast time is 3 seconds, with talents it's 2,5 seconds.

example 2: using the above result for SB_average we get 567,2/2,5 = 226,88 average dps.

This vaue is then weighted by your crit, hit and spell penetration.

with crit the formula becomes SP_DPS*Crit_modifier

example 3: again using the above result of 226,88 average dps. Let's say we have 205 int and 2% crit from gear
Our Crit_modifier becomes (1.8333 + 5 + (205/60) + 2) = 12,25%, we need it in decimal form though, which is 0,1225
Weighting our SP_DPS value with Crit_modifier gives us 226,88*(1+0,1225) = 254,673 dps

Now we weigh in your +hit
The Hit_modifier is subtracted from 1 to give you a <1 value which will decrease your dps. 

example 4: using our crit weighted value we simply further multiply our Hit_modifier in this fashion:
SP_DPS*Crit_modifier*(0,83 + Hit)
So let's say you have the Bloodvine set which gives you 4% hit, that will weigh our dps with 0,83 + 0,04
Our new dps will be 226,88*1,1225*(0,83 + 0,04) = 221,566

Lastly we need spell penetration. This stat only really arrives in AQ and Naxx gear, but let's say you have 20 spell pen.
The Resistance_modifier will be 70-20 = 50, which decreases our dps by 50 * 0,25% = 12,5%
This is then added on to our dps to finally give us the correct value:
221,566*(1-0,125) = 193,870

The complete formula is best described in two steps:
1) SP_DPS = (481,5 + SP*SP_coefficient)/2,5
(Remember that you get Shadow bolt rank 10 in AQ so you'll have to change the average damage to 510,5)
2) average_dps = SP_DPS * (1 + Crit_modifier) * (0,83 + Hit) * (0,825 + (Spell_pen * 0,0025))

3) Apply damage increasing talents like Shadow Mastery and Demonic Sacrifice. Just multiply by 1.10 for SM or MD and 1.15 for DS. 

To test this out let's see how much SP, crit and hit is worth in pre-BiS gear.
With pre-BiS gear you should have approximately 205 int, 279 SP and 2% crit.

Putting these numbers into the formula we get an average dps of 221,56 (I'm leaving SM and DS weights out for simplicity).
Now we can add 1 SP, 1 hit and 1 crit and check the change.
Adding 1 SP yields 221,82 dps, which is a 0.1189% increase.
Adding 1 hit yields 224,23 dps which is a 1,2048% increase.
Adding 1 crit yields 223,53 dps which is a 0,8909% increase.
Adding 1 spell pen yields 222,23 dps which is a 0,30303% increase
Now we can divide through and find the stat weights.
If we set SP as being our unit value to compare with, then hit is worth 10,13 SP, crit is worth 7,49 SP and spell pen is worth 2,55 SP.
Subsequently we can see that 1 hit is worth about 1,35 crit

If we do the same thing with the BiS items for BWL and ZG we get that hit is worth 12 SP, crit is worth 9,6SP and spell pen has jumped up to 3,33
We can also see that 1 hit is worth 1,25 crit, which means crit is becoming more valuable than hit at this point. 

This can be used to show that both Briarwood Reed (29SP) and Royal Seal of Eldre'thalas (23 SP) are better than Eye of the Beast (2% crit).

The easiest way to compare the values of the different attributes is to make an equation in excel or google sheets and feed it with different attributes. You can combine all the formulas into one giant expression if you want and if you do that I would recommend writing notes explaining what does what in the formula in case you don't use it for half a year and subsequently forgotten how to use it.
The DPS increase you get from Improved shadowbolt is difficult to measure properly because it affects the entire raid. Generally more crit increases the total warlock dps while going for the other stats will increase your own. In order to keep the buff up 100% of the time you would need a theoretical 25% crit, which is pretty difficult to attain without world buffs. 

What I've found just playing around with the numbers is that spellpower scales very well when you have bad gear, then once you get to 250-300 SP crit becomes more valuable, but hit becomes incredibly valuable. Once you start reaching 10-11% hit its value starts to taper off and crit/SP becomes more valuable again. Spell penetration scales with your average dps, so if your dps is very high then spell pen will be very powerful. Once you get into Naxx you will probably have 10% hit and crit at least with 20-40 spell pen depending on how many pieces of T2,5 you have. so at that point the stats weigh pretty evenly. 

Also there are not many choices for gear. One of the big choices is to go with a 2H or 1H/OH and here it's usually better to go 1H/OH unless you're looking at Atiesh. Notable exception is also Staff of the Shadowflame which is a beastly staff especially if you can get +hit from elsewhere. Claw of Chromaggus + Tome of Shadow Force or Jin'do's Bag of Whammies are close though and the staff from AQ is not much of an upgrade from Staff of the Shadowflame so you will need to replace it with MH/OH there. 
Another choice is trinkets. I do remember a post about trinkets which have an activateable ability are generally better because their item level points are worth more.
 

Lastly don't forget about stats! It's all fine and dandy to be a glass cannon if your healers are on point, but keep in mind that you will be lifetapping to maintain mana and if you are a few healers short you probably won't be topped so certain mechanics can kill you very fast. 

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Spell pen isn’t needed since none of the bosses have more than 75 shadow resists.  You don’t need to compute DPS when trying to equate crit to SP.  It’s just unnecessary extra work.  The equation I gave gives the same result that you have but I never even cared about the cast speed of shadowbolt to derive it.  There’s no optimization point at 10-11% hit either.  Hit is pretty much always going to be better than crit for personal dps.

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@Light great response you have a lot of solid and correct info in your post but I wanted to add to it as I think your values (e.g. 1 crit is valued at 7-9 SP and 1 hit is valued at 10-12 SP) are correct for earlier patches, but not for the current 1.6 patch.  Furthermore, unless I read over it I don't believe you've accounted for imp SB debuff.

@Superomegop  the answer to your question is very difficult as it depends highly on your raid environment and world buffs you get.  For example, if your raids runs 4 warlocks and hunters are not using Lupos (Lupos auto attacks will eat a stack of Imp SB debuff) then crit is worth a LOT more- actually its about equal to 1% hit.  As Light points out crit becomes more and more valuable as you get more SP because of destruction talents. 

The easiest way would be to edit the Warlock BiS google doc to show your current gear, in the "Character tab" it will take the gear you've chosen from the "Gear" tab and do the math for you.  

In my current gear crit is worth about 13 SP while 1% hit is worth 14 SP, assuming a 40% imp SB uptime (to be honest that number I chose randomly).

@quasexort I agree with Light here, as you get more hit it's value compared to crit starts to decrease.  The point where the values intersect tho will depends on your SP.  10% is about right in patch 1.7.

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